Who's Gonna Make The Cut? 2022 National Book Awards!

Hi, Y’all! Glad You’re Here—

On September 16th, the National Book Foundation will drop their longlist for Fiction, and we’ll finally be able to see which of this year’s books are “the best written books of the year”. We’ll show our outrage over the books that we thought were snubbed, roll our eyes at the books we claim are overhyped, and give a Clint Eastwood-style squint at the books we haven’t heard of before. It’s an exciting time. Because we’re so close, I thought it would be fun to go over the ways I used to predict the award each year (this year is an exception, as all of my focus has been on the 50’s National Book Award books) and also talk about some of the books that I think could possibly make the longlist.

First, I always re-familiarize myself with the eligibility guidelines. When I first started predicting this award years back, I didn’t know that it was specific to U.S. authors, and so I was listing off Canadian authors, U.K. authors, etc. and then fuming when the books were left off the list. The book also has to have been published within a certain date range—this year, it’s December 1, 2021 through November 30, 2022—so some books that won’t be out until late December won’t qualify for this year’s award. It’s small things like this that are a big help in eliminating possibilities. If you’re a bit competitive, it’s the little things that make the difference.

At the beginning of every year, The Millions releases the first half of their “Most Anticipated Books of the Year”, and I scan through and see which books are fiction, which ones are more literary, and which ones feel like they’re doing something new. They release their second half of the list in the middle of the year, just before NBA season, so it gives you a last chance to consider any upcoming releases that might make the list. While there are many great lists to check out, I’ve always had the most luck with this list. I’ve also long been a fan of the website—Pulitzer Prize First Edition Collecting Guide (pprize.com)— because while it’s primarily there to predict the Pulitzer Prize, most of the books they discuss in the chat are eligible for the National Book Award, too, and there are a lot of great readers on there.

If you familiarize yourself with previous winners and finalists, it’s possible that their latest books will make the list, too—we’ve seen that happen with plenty of authors, from Jesmyn Ward to Lauren Groff. Even if they weren’t a winner/finalist for the NBA, if they were a previous Pulitzer Prize winner or a Booker winner, it’s likely that their work is in the running.

Now, here’s where things get a bit tricky. At some point in the year, the foundation announces who the judges will be for each award. There are usually five judges, several of them writers, and a few who have even been previously longlisted, shortlisted, or even won. If you’re obsessive, borderline creepy, you can watch interviews with the authors and see what kinds of books they tend to discuss, or even what books they post about on their Goodreads (this was helpful for a lot of people when Roxane Gay was the Chair in 2020). Every reader is going to be looking for something different, but having a good understanding of the tastes of a few of the judges can be helpful in seeing if the books you’re predicting match their taste. Two of this year’s judges are previous finalists—Ben Fountain, who wrote Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, and Brandon Hobson, who wrote Where The Dead Sit Talking. Rounding them out, we have authors Pam Houston and Dana Johnson, and Michelle Malonzo, who’s been a judge for other book awards and works in the literary world in a different capacity. I know less about this group than people from previous years, but that’s part of the fun of this.

I haven’t actually read as many new releases this year, so I know there are going to be many that have totally flown under the radar for me, but here are a few of the ones I think could make the list and why:

THE SWIMMERS By Julie Otsuka — Otsuka was a finalist for the National Book Award back in 2011 for her novel, The Buddha in the Attic. The Swimmers is her first novel since then, and since its release has been universally praised for its prose, structure, and the way she explores ideas around memory and aging. This was the first book I read for 2022, and it’s stayed on my mind since then. It’s split into four sections, with each one revealing just what this book is really about. While the four section split is becoming a more common trend in books these days—think the likes of Shiner, How Much of These Hills Is Gold, Trust, etc.—I don’t think it’s happened enough to turn off judges. Otsuka’s writing is beautiful, but it’s not overwritten, not flowery, just straightforward and clear. I also found that the novel felt complete by the end, satisfying in a way that people seem to have a hard time achieving these days. This is one of my top reads of the year, and I feel like it’s a shoe-in.

TRUST by Hernan Diaz —Diaz was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize back in 2018 for his debut, In The Distance, and Trust has already been longlisted for the Booker Prize this year. I wasn’t sure what to expect from this novel going in—the articles that mentioned this book before its release described it simply as a book about money—what I got was an exciting, shapeshifting work that considered the ways men cultivate their power in the world, how money *really* works, and the ways women have always been the underpinning to everything. Much of this book feels tied to one of my forever favorites, Fates and Furies by Lauren Groff—I actually think what Groff did with her novel in 2015 more successfully pulls off what Diaz does here in Trust, but mostly just in the ways it explores female rage, and the inner dynamics of a husband and wife. Otherwise, Trust stands well on its own, and it does exciting things structurally. The book is divided into four parts, like The Swimmers, but what it does differently is more akin to books like Fates and Furies, Gone Girl, etc. in that it undoes what we thought we knew about the previous section. This in itself isn’t anything new, obviously, but the way he does it and with this specific story is fun and it works. I think if there were one thing holding this book back, it would be its similarities to other works, but I don’t see that being a problem. Trust is well written, captivating, ‘timely’, and Diaz writes about money in ways we haven’t seen before, and that’s what makes it a standout.

TO PARADISE by Hanya Yanagihara — If you follow me on Instagram, you might recall my ambivalence towards this novel, a triptych exploring the idea of America as Paradise. Yanagihara’s prose are always immaculate, in my opinion, though at times could use a bit of pruning. The first section, taking place in an alternate timeline of 1890’s America, where being gay is…okay? I felt that the way Yanagihara wrote about race in this section in particular was a bit clumsy, and while I enjoyed the character dynamics, this world never felt fully fleshed out to me. Section two was my personal favorite section, and I thought the way she wrote about Hawaii was beautiful. I would have loved to have seen this be the focus of the book, and thought it was the strongest part. Section three takes place in the future, and there are quite a few pandemics. The thing is, Yanagihara is doing a lot of exciting things in this book—I don’t think they came together, really, but I also think this is a major work that won’t go unnoticed. If nothing else, it’s a great book for igniting book club conversations.

SEA OF TRANQUILITY by Emily St. John Mandel — I have been a big fan of Mandel since reading her National Book Award finalist novel, Station Eleven. She followed that one up with The Glass Hotel, and we see both novels converge with this, her latest novel, involving writers, pandemics, and time travel. While not a sequel, per say, Sea of Tranquility does reference her previous two novels throughout, and it’s exciting to see those little moments when they crop up. Mandel is a stellar writer—her prose is more akin to Otsuka’s than Yanagihara, so if you like the less-is-more approach, this one is for you. It’s actually really interesting how many parallels there are between Sea of Tranquility and To Paradise, as both have parts set in the past, present, and future, and both explore the impact of pandemics. This one was better crafted, in my opinion, but I don’t think it’s as showy and I haven’t seen it grab as much attention overall. Both Mandel and Yanagihara have been finalists before, so I wouldn’t count either one out, but I don’t know how likely it is to see both of these novels make the list.

THE CANDY HOUSE by Jennifer Egan — Egan’s novel, A Visit From The Goon Squad won the Pulitzer Prize back in 2011, and this new one, her sequel, has been getting a good amount of praise. Egan has been longlisted for the National Book Award several times before, and her work is always a favorite to be included, so I wouldn’t discount seeing this one pop up. I’ve personally had a harder time connecting with both of these novels, but not because they’re not good—it’s mostly that the person who first recommended Goon Squad to me turned out to be a terrible person, and I have a bad habit of remembering things like that and bringing it with me in my reading experience. That aside, I do think this is great work from Egan, and I find that she’s always rethinking the structure of the novel in unexpected and exciting ways. It’s clear that Egan understands how the social media landscape has influenced the way we see stories, and she uses that filter here to tremendous effect. I would be happy to see this one pop up, and then give it a re-read.

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These first five are all similar in that they’re doing different things structurally, and I think that depending on how much these other authors enjoy that kind of thing, we could see these books pop up. If they don’t really care for that, then maybe none of them will. Who knows! I think we’d see all five if it were back in 2019, when Jeff Vandermeer judged, but anyway. Moving on!

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DISORIENTATION by Elaine Hsieh Chou — Disorientation reminded me in some ways of Kiley Reid’s Such A Fun Age, in that both are using these soapy, high drama stories as a framework to consider ideas around race, class, and identity, and it makes for compelling reading while also making the reader reconsider their own lens. It’s like peak Reese Witherspoon’s Book Club, and I mean that in the best way. Chou has written such a great novel here, and I actually think this also reminded me of Batuman’s The Idiot, too. Chou captures that coming into awareness one has as they begin to interact with people outside of their own circle. While the first five novels might catch the attention of the judges for their structures, I think this one does such a great job of depicting self realization in a way that I haven’t really seen in other novels before. If you haven’t read this one, I think it’s absolutely worth picking up.

FIONA AND JANE by Jean Chen Ho — One of my all-time favorite books is Alice Munro’s The Beggar Maid, and Ho’s Fiona and Jane reminded me of just why a short story cycle can be so exciting. I love when we get to see the same characters existing in different capacities, in different dynamics, at different points in time, and a short story offers these perfectly contained little slices of life. This collection does such a beautiful job of exploring the complicated dynamics of female friendship, layered with the exploration of the intersections of identity, and it’s done in such an unpretentious way. I loved this one, and because there’s always at least one short story collection on these lists, it’s good to think about which ones might crop up.

CLEAN AIR by Sarah Blake — I love everything I’ve read by Sarah Blake. I have raved about her debut novel, Naamah, ever since its release in 2019, and find her poetry just as captivating and delicious. With her sophomore effort, Blake pivots in almost every way—where Naamah was set in the distant past, ornamented with religious imagery, about someone feeling stuck in every way, Clean Air is set in a dystopian future and is also basically a thriller, and follows someone who operates in a completely different capacity than the character of Naamah. It’s this ability of Blake’s to shift gears so completely that makes her so exciting to watch. She’s not interested in writing the same book over and over again, and so she writes the polar opposite here. Clean Air is well written, has great world building without it ever unnecessarily bloating the story, and operates in multiple genres without ever teetering off the edge. I think it’s an incredible balancing act, and for that reason alone, I’d be happy to see it.

THE SCHOOL FOR GOOD MOTHERS by Jessamine Chan — The School For Good Mothers is a great companion read to Clean Air, because I think both books show just how different two writers can explore a similar concept, with these two both looking at motherhood in a not-too-distant future. This novel somehow felt like a mix of Klara And The Sun and The Handmaid’s Tale, and I think it works. The first hundred pages were my favorite part of the book, there’s such a page-turning quality as the tension builds in the narrative and we chew our nails to the quick to see where things go. Chan has such a great narrative voice, the book is well written and has such a clear vision. While I didn’t love the second half as much as the front half, I still found this to be an enjoyable read and wouldn’t be surprised to see something regarding the governmental policing of motherhood make the list.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW by Gabrielle Zevin — I liked this novel, about friendship and video game development, and I think if you enjoy books like A Little Life but want a version that’s a bit diluted regarded the traumatic aspects, this is a good one for you. I know a lot of people have said they think this one will make the longlist, and I could see it. I do think it leans a bit more commercial than some of the other books in consideration, but I also know that this one is getting a lot of buzz and has been hailed by many as the book of the year. It does have good character development and it also reminded me of the Pulitzer Prize-winning epic, The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay—so I guess if it reminds me of two major award contenders, it could also be a major awards contender? I’m a bit on the fence about this one, so we will see.

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These five above aren’t as structurally experimental—their focus is more on character, and most of them have strong story elements, which might make them more accessible to wider readers. I think there’s this expectation that a well-written book has to be structurally/formally innovative, but I think books like Great Circle and Fleishman Is In Trouble are great examples of well written novels that are a little more straight forward. Also, the National Book Award often gravitates towards more straightforward stories than awards like the Booker, at least from what I’ve noticed.

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BLISS MONTAGE by Ling Ma — I loved this collection, from the author of Severance. I haven’t read as many short story collections this year, but of the few I’ve read, this is probably the strongest. Stellar prose, great voice, interesting concepts. This is one that I would love to see make the list, especially because I find that collections generally get less attention unless they appear on these award lists.

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I haven’t read enough other collections to make a full list, but I definitely think it’s worth considering some other collections if you’re looking to make your own predictions this year.

There are so many other books that I think could make the list this year—I was a big fan of Greenland by David Santos Donaldson (though can’t remember if it’s elligible. Still plugging here, because you should read it). I know Nightcrawling by Leila Mottley has received a lot of buzz (It’s on the Booker longlist), Alexander Chee has hyped up Brother Alive by Zain Khalid, Kristen Arnett blurbed Our Wives Under The Sea by Julia Armfield. Annie B. Jones has sung the praises of Flight by Lynn Steger Strong, The Book of Goose by Yiyun Li, and Dinosaurs by Lydia Millet. Millet has been on the longlist several times before, and I always enjoy her work so I would be happy to see it. There really are so many NBA finalist authors with new books out this year, so it’s hard to know which will make the cut.

Overall, I’m still not entirely sure which books will make my final predictions list, which ones will actually land on the longlist itself, but it’s exciting to try and figure it out. I think when you try to read for quality, when you begin to consider books in a more critical way, you begin to find yourself reading better and better books. I know that’s not what everyone enjoys, but I do.

Anyway, if you have your own ideas about which books might make the list, let me know! Are there any you’d be really excited to see? What are books that you absolutely would NOT want to see on the list? Let me know all of your thoughts, let’s discuss!

And until next time,

XOXO